Wednesday – Champions League – Neil Mac Football Tips – Substack

PSG vs Brest

✅ Both teams score - Yes at 1.98 (Pinnacle) - 2 units

• Brest have regularly created good chances against PSG and have scored in six of their last seven meetings (with the exception of the last game where they hit the woodwork three times).

• They pose a major threat from set pieces and rank second in Ligue 1 in xG from set pieces.

• Effective on the counterattack, 5th place for the French in the transition game.

• PSG's defensive difficulties:

  • Conceded all but one UCL home game last year (against Girona).

  • Only three clean sheets in 17 Ligue 1 home games in the last 12 months.

📌 Brest's goal-scoring ability combined with PSG's defensive weaknesses make BTTS a solid value at a near-playable price .

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PSV vs Juventus

✅ More than 2.5 goals in total at 1.79 (Pinnacle) – 2 units

• PSV are a completely different beast at home , averaging 2.71 goals per game and 2.51 xG per 90 in UCL home games .

• More than 2.5 goals were scored in the two previous meetings between these teams .

• PSV have only kept one clean sheet in the UCL (against Girona), so Juventus should add to the goals.

• PSV's offensive dominance at home:

  • 3.33 goals per 90 : unmatched in the Eredivisie.

• Defensive failures weaken both sides:

  • PSV: Boscagli, Karsdorp, Dest.

  • Juventus: Bremer, Kalulu.

• Juve's winter signings (Veiga, Kelly, RKM) have boosted their attacking output and early signs point to a 90-goal improvement.

• Juventus performed better defensively away from home (0.88 goals conceded in 1.32xGA ), suggesting a regression is imminent.

📌 With PSV's attacking power at home and Juve's recent attacking improvements, this game is well suited for goals.

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Real Madrid-Man City

✅ Man City more than 1.5 team goals at 2.03 – 2 units

• The pressure on Madrid to progress could work in City's favor.

• Pep's approach in the first leg exposed Real Madrid's defensive weaknesses , and City should continue to exploit these.

• Real Madrid's defensive problems:

  • Important injured: Rüdiger, Alaba, Carvajal, Militão and Vázquez .

  • No goals conceded in the last four games (6 goals conceded, 1.89xGA per game).

  • With Tchouaméni at CB, Madrid kept two clean sheets in the UCL, but with him and Mendy in the lineup, the defensive parameters deteriorate.

• Madrid have conceded several goals against elite rivals this season:

  • Dortmund (2), Milan (3), Liverpool (2), Atalanta (2) and Man City (2) in the first leg.

📌 Given City's attacking quality and Madrid's defensive concerns, over 1.5 goals from City seems solid, plus the money.

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